As the race to be the best in AI heats up, Kalshi’s prediction market shows that people are becoming more sure that Google’s Gemini will be the best AI text model in the world by the end of 2025. After a series of technical updates, 57% of Kalshi bettors now support Gemini. This puts it ahead of competitors OpenAI’s ChatGPT and xAI’s Grok, which have fallen behind because of recent problems and public criticism.
Gemini Takes the Lead in a Competitive Field
The most recent data from Kalshi shows that Gemini’s support has grown from 48.1% to 57% in just one week. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has seen its share fall from 25.4% to 20% and xAI’s Grok has slipped from 18.8% to 15%. This change comes after Google revealed major new features for Gemini, such as a storybook mode, better reasoning, and temporary chats that focus on privacy.
These updates are different from the problems that competitors are having. People had mixed feelings about ChatGPT-5’s release, which led OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to defend the model in public. Elon Musk’s company xAI launched Grok, which has also been in the news for the wrong reasons, such as claims of political bias and the removal of content that was deemed problematic.
The LM Arena Leaderboard, a public site that keeps track of the best language models in the world, will be used to check the results of the Kalshi prediction market. With more than $7.4 million in bets placed on the scenario, AI and tech watchers are very excited about the results, which will be known on December 31, 2025.
The Industry and Regulatory Setting
The AI model contest is getting more intense, not just in terms of tech development but also in terms of market positioning. For example, Perplexity and OpenAI have both tried to buy Google Chrome recently. At the same time, international regulators are paying more attention, with antitrust authorities in the G7, the US, and the EU all hinting at possible steps to make sure AI markets stay competitive.
Market predictions say that Google’s Gemini is the most likely candidate to win the title of best AI text model for 2025. This is because it has recently been updated, and users are very excited about it. The next few months will be very important for all of the big AI companies as the landscape changes due to new technology and government action.
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